We publish our accuracy. The industry hides theirs.
Dynasty General is built on calibrated prediction. We backtest our engine against named industry baselines (FantasyPros ECR, FantasyPros ADP, KeepTradeCut) on dynasty cumulative outcomes from 2022 to 2024. The numbers below are reproducible from the source rankings and historical actuals.
Engine v0 below uses position rubric scaffolding plus corpus-grounded age curves. It runs WITHOUT signal codes loaded (those are in progress). The v0 result is the floor; signal- aware v1 should improve on these numbers.
Dynasty cumulative-PPR Spearman rank correlation
Higher is better. Each row is a (source, prediction year) snapshot. Cumulative window adapts to outcome data availability: 3-year for 2022, 2-year for 2023, 1-year for 2024 (will become full 3-year when 2025 and 2026 outcomes are ingested).
2022 prediction year
| Source | Spearman | MAR | n | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| dynasty_general_v0_signals@1qb | 0.3778 | 56.44 | 87 | 3yr |
| dynasty_general_v0_signals@1qb | 0.3756 | 56.47 | 87 | 3yr |
| dynasty_general_v0_signals@1qb | 0.3759 | 56.52 | 87 | 3yr |
| Dynasty General v0 (1QB, no signals) | 0.3901 | 56.63 | 86 | 3yr |
| FantasyPros ADP | 0.4627 | 54.75 | 85 | 3yr |
| FantasyPros ECR (1QB) | 0.4631 | 51.40 | 91 | 3yr |
| FantasyPros ECR (1QB) | 0.4631 | 51.40 | 91 | 3yr |
| KeepTradeCut (1QB) | 0.3538 | 52.83 | 78 | 3yr |
2023 prediction year
| Source | Spearman | MAR | n | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynasty General v0 (1QB, no signals) | 0.4674 | 30.45 | 66 | 2yr |
| FantasyPros ADP | 0.5354 | 43.36 | 73 | 2yr |
| FantasyPros ECR (1QB) | 0.4327 | 37.17 | 72 | 2yr |
| KeepTradeCut (1QB) | 0.4485 | 30.79 | 62 | 2yr |
2024 prediction year
| Source | Spearman | MAR | n | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynasty General v0 (1QB, no signals) | 0.3393 | 56.70 | 70 | 1yr |
| FantasyPros ADP | 0.0932 | 53.22 | 73 | 1yr |
| FantasyPros ECR (1QB) | 0.2001 | 48.95 | 73 | 1yr |
| KeepTradeCut (1QB) | 0.2358 | 52.00 | 64 | 1yr |
Headline (averaged across 2022-2024, top-100 predicted)
- Dynasty General v0: Spearman 0.399
- FantasyPros ECR: Spearman 0.365
- FantasyPros ADP: Spearman 0.364
- KeepTradeCut market consensus: Spearman 0.346
Sample sizes are small (60-90 joined pairs per source per year). Confidence intervals on individual Spearman values are roughly ±0.05 to ±0.10. The average across years is more reliable than any single-year ranking.
Methodology
We score each source's preseason ranking against the actual cumulative PPR points scored over the post-prediction window. The loss function follows VALIDATION_PLAN section 8.2:L_dynasty = 0.6 × KTC_6mo_value_MAE + 0.4 × cumulative_3yr_PPR_RMSE. v0 publishes the cumulative-PPR-rank correlation component; v1 will composite KTC value drift into the full weighted loss.
Source snapshots: FantasyPros rankings accessed under a paid trial in May 2026 from dynasty-overall.php?year=YYYY&week=0. KeepTradeCut snapshots from the public Wayback Machine archive. Sleeper season totals from the public stats endpoint.
We publish derived metrics (Spearman correlations, MAR, hit rates). We do not republish source rankings or player-by-player orderings. To reproduce a row: subscribe to the source, capture the preseason snapshot, score against actuals, compute the metric. Scripts are in the public repository under web/scripts/.
Industry prior art: FantasyCalc maintains a public performance- analysis page comparing their values to FantasyPros ECR by name. Comparative-accuracy publication is standard.
Caveats
- Engine v0 has zero signal codes loaded. Track A (historical-signal-extractor) is in progress; v1 with signals will be published when Track A completes.
- Sample sizes are small; confidence intervals are ±0.05 to ±0.10 on individual Spearman values. The average is more reliable than the year-by-year ordering.
- The 2024 prediction is currently scored on a 1-year window only. When 2025 and 2026 outcomes are ingested, this row will be re-scored on the full 3-year cumulative.
- Engine universe is restricted to KTC top-200; v0 cannot find a "diamond in the rough" outside that universe.
- Past backtest performance does not predict future seasons.
Updated 2026-05-06. Dynasty General is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FantasyPros, Marzen Media LLC, KeepTradeCut, FantasyCalc, or Sleeper. Comparative claims reflect public product observation and our own backtest methodology as of 2026-05-06; see /scoreboard/methodology for sources and reproducibility notes. FantasyPros is a trademark of Marzen Media LLC, used here for comparative reference under nominative fair use.